CGC    3rd. International Workshop     cicese
on Statistical Seismology
May 4th - 7th, 2003

Juriquilla, Querétaro, Mexico




PROGRAMME


The Programme will consist of seven short sessions, of approximately 2 hours each, with opportunities for additional sessions
to be held after or alongside those originally scheduled. The starting times proposed for the three main  daily sessions are
8.30 am, 11am and 5pm, with a substantial lunch break at around 2 pm
       The aim is to keep the Workshop informal, in order to maximize opportunities for discussion and interactions among participants.

       The topics of the seven sessions are set out below, with the names of chairpersons in brackets.
     
        NOTE:  All activities, unless noted otherwise, are held at the Hotel Misión in Juriquilla.

Inaugural session (May 4th, 2003, 6:00-7:00 p.m.)

Welcoming presentations

Dr Luca Ferrari
Director, Centro de Ceociencias, UNAM
Campus Juriquilla, Querétaro, Mexico

Dr Javier Mendieta
Director, Centro de Investigación Científica y Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE)
Ensenada, México
ICE BREAKER

8:00 p.m.
MONDAY MAY 5th
       SESSION 1 STOCHASTIC AND PHYSICAL MODELS FOR
       EARTHQUAKE PHENOMENA  (Yehuda Ben Zion)

      8:30
1.  Ben-Zion: Seismicity patterns on different fault systems
      9:20
2.  Toda:  Time-dependent Earthquake Probability
      10:10
3.  Greg Anderson: Observational test of optimally oriented plane
      10:40
4.  Nava:  Seismic hazard evaluation using Markov chains
5. Zhang Xiaodong: Study and analysis of earthquake energy density



       SESSION 2 STOCHASTIC MODELS AS DIAGNOSTIC
       TOOLS   (Yosihiko Ogata)

      11:30
1.  Ogata: Seismicity-Change-Analysis
      12:10
2.  Ben-Zion and Eneva:  Large earthquake cycles and intermittent seismicity
      12:50
3.   Vere-Jones David Harte, Shiyong Zhou, Qiong Wang:   M8 deep and shallow
      13:30
4.  Zuniga: Interevent-time distribution properties


       SESSION 3a SEISMICITY ESTIMATION (Chair: David Rhoades)

      17:00
1. Woessmer:  Assessing magnitude completeness
      17:40
2. Glowacka: Statistical evaluation of anthropogenic influences
      18:20
3.  Qifu Chen: Implicit randomness of seismicity and predictability
       18:50
4.  Frez:  Parameter estimation for Omori Law

    SESSION 3b  
      19:00
Continuation of discussion from Sessions 1 2 & 3
POSTERS

Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the two great earthquakes in Nankai Trough. Yosihiko Ogata.

Use of Potential Foreshocks to Estimate Earthquake Probabilities in the
East off Tohoku, Northeast Japan  Masajiro IMOTO, Takaki IWATA, NIED

Physical mechanism of AMR model based on rock acoustic emission test  WANG Lifeng, MA Li

The importance of events with magnitude 6, CHEN Shijun, MA Li

Space-Time Point Process Models For Aftershock Sequence, LV Shaochuan, LI Yong

 TUESDAY MAY 6th

       SESSION  4   STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR FORECASTING,
      CATALOG BASED DATA (David Vere-Jones)

      8:30
1. Rhoades: EEPAS Forecasting Model
      9:20
2. Ma Li and Li Yong:  Features of seismicity at different tectonic
      regimes
      10:10
3. Shi Yaolin: Improved method of prediction for Chinese earthquake
      10:40
4.  Harte and Vere-Jones:  Properties of the entropy score

      
        SESSION 5  STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR FORECASTING,
        PHYSICAL VARIABLES BASED DATA  (Ma Li )

      11:30
1. J-Y Liu and Y-I Chen: Seismo-ionospheric precursors
      12:10
2. Iwata:  Tidal stress/strain and acoustic emission
      12:50
3. Li Yong:  Seismic information in underground water levels
      13:30
4. Zhuang: Statistical confirmation of electrical signals

     
       SESSION 6   IMPACT OF TIME-VARYING FORECASTS
       ON INSURANCE AND HAZARD MANAGEMENT  (Cinna Lomnitz)

      17:00
1. Lomnitz: Disasters at the nature-society interface: Management, simulation and
prevention
      17:40
2. Wiemer and Gerstenberger: Communicating foreshock and aftershock
hazard
      18:20
3. Q-F Chen, H Mi and J Huang: Seismic Macro-vulnerability in China
Mainland
       18:50
4. Ordaz: Seismic loss estimation in Mexico: Impact of regulation on the
insurance industry

WORKSHOP DINNER
    20:00  SALON GOYESCO, HOTEL MISION JURIQUILLA
WEDNESDAY MAY 7th

       SESSION 7  SOFTWARE FRAMEWORKS FOR
       STOCHASTIC  MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE (Stefan Wiemer)

       8:30
1. Wiemer: Introduction
       9:00
2.  Examples of software packages and software usages (Zhuang, Anderson, Ben-Zion, Toda, MaLi and others)
     Zhuang: Graphical user interface framework for Statistical Seismology Library (SSLIB)

Open Discussion

EXCURSION TO TOWNS OF BERNAL, AND TEQUISQUIAPAN QUERETARO
Wednesday May 7th, 12:00- 17:00


       Notes:

1. This programme is likely to be altered as organizers see the need to it.

2. Because of the health problem emerging in China it is likely that some at least of our Chinese colleagues will be unable to attend; as far as possible we shall try to have their papers presented by proxy or as poster sessions.

3. Within the suggested sessions, presenters should contact the session organizers to discuss details of timing.

4. Facilities for presentations such as PC and Projectors (i.e. cannon for power point or like presentations)
will be available, as well as Overhead and Slide projectors.

Details of timing for the sessions, dinner and of the excursion, are to be confirmed later.


ATTENDANCE AND REGISTRATION.


       A Workshop fee of US$75 will be charged for all non-student participants during in-site registration

       All intending participants should contact (via FAX or e-mail):

           Ms. Nancy Jimenez, Promotora de Servicios Turisticos
           e-mail: grupoberith@prodigy.net.mx
           Fax: (52-777) 310 63 49

       as soon as possible for assistance in booking a room.
       Accommodation will be reserved for you at
       Mision Juriquilla at the special rate of Mex$ 928 (US$85)
       all taxes included, per night/double room
       unless you request otherwise.
       You may of course arrange accommodation directly
       with Hotels listed via the Website.
       A copy of your request to Ramon Zuniga would also help keep track
       of reservations.

       If you would like to present a short paper at the Workshop, please
       contact one of the Session chairpersons with your title and short
       abstract, and with a copy to the Workshop Organizers.

       Participants are encouraged to contribute to sessions by way of
       short presentations, posters or contributions to the discussion.
       Formal presentations will be limited to two per person. Papers
       from the Workshop may be submitted to Geofísica Internacional
       or any other standard journal. Abstracts, including poster
       abstracts,  should reach the Workshop Organizers before
       pin3 April 4th 2003 if they are to be included in the Workshop programme.


For further info please contact:

Ramón Zúñiga, Convener StatSei 3
email
Centro de Geociencias, UNAM
Campus Juriquilla
Apdo. Postal 1-742
Queretaro, Qro., C.P. 76000
MEXICO 
Phone.: (52-442) 238-1106 ext 102
Fax: (52-55) 5623-4105 


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